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Vol. I · No. 194 · 2477 Reports Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Midterms 2026 · Race board

Midterms 2026 Race Board

Constitutionally on-cycle races for 2026 — Class II Senate seats and midterm governors — with live CladFacts coverage stats. Not a poll: each card asks whose side is getting graded airtime, and how that coverage holds up.

Civics How midterms work (short)
  • In a federal midterm (the election halfway through a presidential term), every House seat is on the ballot and roughly one-third of the Senate (one class). The presidency is not. Governors and state legislatures follow state calendars — many large states vote for governor in midterms.
  • The Senate’s three classes exist so the whole chamber is never elected at once (Art. I §3). 2026 is Class II (terms end January 2027). Class III returns in 2028; Class I in 2030. Georgia’s Class II seat is Ossoff; Warnock is Class III.
  • If a Senate seat opens mid-term, the 17th Amendment lets each state decide how to fill it — usually a gubernatorial appointment until the next election, plus state primary rules (see South Carolina 2026).
  • All 435 House seats are contested every two years. We don’t card every district; national House control still dominates midterm coverage and will appear in the coverage tournament when figures dominate the feed.
  • These cards rank graded media coverage of each side, not voters. A “coverage lead” means more CladFacts reports (and higher average factuality of that coverage when signed in) — not a projected winner.

Guests see report counts (heat). Sign in free to see which side leads each race by coverage volume + average factuality of that coverage — not by polls. Create free account

Hottest on-cycle race (by graded reports) Georgia U.S. Senate Jon Ossoff vs Mike Collins · 36 combined reports · Senate Class 2
Share on Bluesky Group by chamber

South

  • Georgia U.S. Senate

    marquee Projected general Class 2 36 reports
    Jon Ossoff (D) · Inc. 16 reports
    Mike Collins (R) 20 reports

    Class II. Ossoff (Dem primary unopposed May 2026). Collins won the June 16 GOP runoff vs Derek Dooley — both are general-election nominees. Warnock is Class III (2028).

  • Texas U.S. Senate

    marquee Projected general Class 2 11 reports
    Ken Paxton (R) 7 reports
    James Talarico (D) 4 reports

    Class II. Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the May 26, 2026 GOP runoff. Talarico won the March Dem primary (over Jasmine Crockett). Ted Cruz is Class I (2030) — not on this ballot.

  • Georgia Governor

    watch Incumbent · field open 5 reports
    Brian Kemp (R) · Inc. 5 reports
    Democratic field (GA gov) (D) · Field 0 reports

    Parallel to Class II Senate (Ossoff). Do not conflate with Warnock’s Class III seat (2028).

  • Florida Governor

    watch Open seat 2 reports
    Term-limited / open (FL) (R) · Field 2 reports
    Democratic field (FL gov) (D) · Field 0 reports

    Open under state term limits after DeSantis’s second term — update sides when nominees emerge. DeSantis slug remains for coverage heat only.

  • South Carolina U.S. Senate

    watch Vacancy · special calendar Class 2 1 reports
    GOP special primary (SC) (R) · Field 0 reports
    Annie Andrews (D) 1 report

    Class II vacancy after Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death (July 11, 2026). Gov. McMaster appointed Darline Graham Nordone interim. Special GOP primary Aug 11 (runoff Aug 25 if needed) for the Nov ballot. Annie Andrews is the Democratic nominee.

  • North Carolina U.S. Senate

    marquee Projected general Class 2 0 reports
    Roy Cooper (D) 0 reports
    Michael Whatley (R) 0 reports

    Class II open seat — Thom Tillis retired (not seeking re-election). March 2026 primaries: Cooper (D) and Whatley (R, former RNC chair) are the nominees.

Midwest

  • Illinois U.S. Senate

    lean Open seat Class 2 6 reports
    Dick Durbin seat (open) (D) · Field 6 reports
    GOP field (IL) (R) · Field 0 reports

    Class II open seat — Dick Durbin not seeking re-election. Safe on paper for Democrats; national coverage continues.

  • Michigan U.S. Senate

    marquee Open seat Class 2 2 reports
    Dem primary (Stevens / El-Sayed) (D) · Field 1 report
    Mike Rogers (R) · Field 1 report

    Class II open seat — Gary Peters not seeking re-election. Dem primary Aug 4, 2026: Haley Stevens vs Abdul El-Sayed (McMorrow suspended). Rogers is the main GOP coverage name. Elissa Slotkin is Class I (2030) — not on this ballot.

  • Nebraska U.S. Senate

    lean Incumbent · field open Class 2 1 reports
    Pete Ricketts (R) · Inc. 1 report
    Democratic field (NE) (D) · Field 0 reports

    Class II (Ricketts). Deb Fischer is Class I (next 2030).

  • Michigan Governor

    watch Incumbent · field open 0 reports
    Gretchen Whitmer (D) · Inc. 0 reports
    GOP field (MI gov) (R) · Field 0 reports

    Separate from the open Class II Senate race above.

  • Minnesota U.S. Senate

    watch Open seat Class 2 0 reports
    Dem primary (Flanagan / Craig) (D) · Field 0 reports
    GOP field (MN) (R) · Field 0 reports

    Class II open seat — Tina Smith retiring. Dem primary Aug 11, 2026 (Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Rep. Angie Craig lead coverage). Amy Klobuchar is Class I (2030).

  • Wisconsin Governor

    watch Incumbent · field open 0 reports
    Tony Evers (D) · Inc. 0 reports
    GOP field (WI gov) (R) · Field 0 reports

    No Wisconsin U.S. Senate race in 2026 (Baldwin Class I → 2030; Johnson Class III → 2028).

Northeast

  • Maine U.S. Senate

    marquee Incumbent · field open Class 2 3 reports
    Susan Collins (R) · Inc. 3 reports
    Democratic nominee TBD (ME) (D) · Field 0 reports

    Class II. Collins won the GOP primary unopposed. Graham Platner won the June Dem primary but withdrew July 2026 after assault allegations — Maine Democrats must name a replacement (party process; filing window around late July). Do not list Platner as the nominee.

  • Pennsylvania Governor

    marquee Incumbent · field open 2 reports
    Josh Shapiro (D) · Inc. 2 reports
    GOP field (PA) (R) · Field 0 reports

    No Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race in 2026 (Fetterman Class III → 2028; the other seat is Class I → 2030).

  • New Jersey U.S. Senate

    lean Incumbent · field open Class 2 1 reports
    Cory Booker (D) · Inc. 1 report
    GOP field (NJ) (R) · Field 0 reports

    Class II.

  • New Hampshire U.S. Senate

    watch Open seat Class 2 0 reports
    Chris Pappas (D) · Field 0 reports
    GOP field (Sununu / Brown) (R) · Field 0 reports

    Class II open seat — Jeanne Shaheen retiring. Primaries Sept 8, 2026. Coverage stand-ins: Rep. Chris Pappas (D); former Sen. John E. Sununu and Scott Brown lead GOP coverage. Update when nominees lock.

West

  • Colorado U.S. Senate

    lean Incumbent · field open Class 2 4 reports
    John Hickenlooper (D) · Inc. 4 reports
    GOP field (CO) (R) · Field 0 reports

    Class II is Hickenlooper (elected 2020). Michael Bennet is Class III (next 2028); he lost the 2026 Colorado governor primary and remains in the Senate through that term.

  • Colorado Governor

    watch Open seat 3 reports
    Phil Weiser (D) · Field 3 reports
    GOP field (CO gov) (R) · Field 0 reports

    Open after term limits. Dem primary: Phil Weiser defeated Sen. Michael Bennet (June 2026). Separate from Hickenlooper’s Class II Senate race.

  • Arizona Governor

    marquee Incumbent · field open 0 reports
    Katie Hobbs (D) · Inc. 0 reports
    Kari Lake (R) · Field 0 reports

    No Arizona U.S. Senate seat is scheduled for 2026 (Kelly Class III → 2028; Gallego Class I → 2030).

  • Montana U.S. Senate

    watch Incumbent · field open Class 2 0 reports
    Steve Daines (R) · Inc. 0 reports
    Democratic field (MT) (D) · Field 0 reports

    Class II is Daines. Jon Tester’s prior seat was Class I (2024 cycle) — not this race.

  • Nevada Governor

    watch Incumbent · field open 0 reports
    Joe Lombardo (R) · Inc. 0 reports
    Democratic field (NV gov) (D) · Field 0 reports

    Jacky Rosen is Class I (reelected 2024 → 2030) — not a 2026 Senate ballot.

Guide How to read this board
  • Candidate map verified as of 2026-07-14. A background agent re-checks dropouts and nominees with web search every other day; stale pairings get fixed in code.
  • On-cycle only. Senate cards are Class II (2026). Class I (next 2030) and Class III (next 2028) are not marquee Senate cards here.
  • Open seats mark retirements (Tillis, Peters, Smith, Shaheen, Durbin) or term-limited governors — not “incumbent vs field.”
  • Special marks a mid-term vacancy under the 17th Amendment + state law (South Carolina after Graham’s death).
  • Heat = combined graded reports mentioning either side (public).
  • Coverage lead (signed-in) = more reports, then higher average factuality of that coverage — not a vote forecast.
  • Field means the nominee is not locked in our data; we show a coverage stand-in and note it. Withdrawn candidates (e.g. Platner in Maine) are not listed as active sides.
  • House: all 435 seats every midterm — national control still shows up in the coverage tournament.

People-level tournament (volume seeding): coverage tournament. Civics explainers: first-time voter guide.