Hundreds of private U.S. colleges face closure risk as enrollment declines
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Summary
USA TODAY's The Excerpt interviews Jon Marcus of the Hechinger Report about the impending closure of Sterling College, a small experiential liberal arts school in rural Vermont that ended degree programs in spring 2026. The segment explores why small private colleges are struggling, the emotional and practical toll on students who value intimate learning environments, low transfer and completion rates after closures, and the loss of economic and demographic pipelines in rural communities. Marcus discusses broader trends including the demographic cliff from lower birth rates during the Great Recession and questions about the return on investment in higher education.
Editorial Assessment
The broadcast is high-quality, well-sourced journalism that accurately conveys a documented crisis in small private higher education. Claims on the scale of risk, student outcomes, and demographic drivers are strongly supported by Huron Consulting Group's April 2026 analysis and SHEEO/National Student Clearinghouse research. Viewers receive good context on differing rural vs. urban impacts and actionable advice for families (scrutinize institutional finances, negotiate aid in a buyer's market). What is somewhat minimized is the significant variation in outcomes: many closures are concentrated among the smallest, least selective, tuition-dependent schools, while larger or better-resourced privates and public systems are adapting through mergers, online programs, or program cuts. The segment also does not deeply explore alternative postsecondary pathways (apprenticeships, community colleges, workforce training) that some of the "missing" 18-year-olds are choosing, which could temper perceptions of a total higher-ed collapse. Overall, it provides a sobering and largely accurate picture without undue alarmism.
Key Moments
442 private nonprofit colleges with 667,000 students are at risk of closing or merging; about 120 at severe risk
Matches Huron Consulting Group projection reported in Hechinger Report (April 2026); uses 667k-670k students and 1,700 total private nonprofits
Fewer than half of students at colleges that close go on to continue their education
Consistent with SHEEO/National Student Clearinghouse research (2004-2020 data); re-enrollment rates around 47% overall, lower for abrupt closures
There are now about 42-43 million people in the U.S. who started college but never finished
National Student Clearinghouse reports 43.1 million in the Some College, No Credential population as of 2023-24
The proportion of high school graduates going straight to college has declined dramatically due to fewer 18-year-olds from the Great Recession and doubts about ROI
College enrollment rate for recent HS grads fell from ~70% in 2016 to 61% in 2023; birth rates dropped sharply post-2007, creating an enrollment cliff starting 2025 (NCES, WICHE)
Rural college closures create major long-term demographic and economic damage beyond immediate tax/revenue losses by removing pipelines of young people who stay and start businesses
Supported by examples from Vermont (7 closures in ~10 years) and alumni/business owner interviews; contrasts with urban repurposing (e.g., senior housing)
Notable Concerns
- Slight overstatement of immediacy of "hundreds shutting down" versus projected risk over a decade
- Limited discussion of adaptation strategies beyond mergers or of non-college pathways
Sources Consulted
- More than a quarter of private colleges are at risk of closing, new projection shows
- Time to act: Capitalizing on strategic partnerships and M&A
- Some College, No Credential Student Outcomes
- Sterling College to Conclude Degree Programs After Spring 2026
- Closed Colleges: List of Closures, Mergers, and Trendline
- The College Enrollment Decline is About to Get Much Worse
- A Dream Derailed? Investigating the Impacts of College Closures on Student Outcomes