Bret Baier flags polling failures in Wisconsin and Michigan Democratic races
Source: Fox News · All Fox News reports
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Topics in this report
Summary
The segment features Bret Baier discussing recent Democratic primaries as a cautionary tale on poll reliability ahead of midterms. It covers Michigan where Abdul El-Sayed led polls but won narrowly, and Wisconsin where Francesca Hong led by large margins in surveys yet lost. Baier attributes some polling to a company running a social experiment. The discussion shifts to Florida's August 18 primary in the 25th district pitting DSA's Oliver Larkin against Rep. Jared Moskowitz. It closes with a clip and commentary on newly public FBI files detailing Eric Swalwell's past ties to suspected Chinese spy Christine Fang, including a 2020 denial clip contrasted with file details.
Editorial Assessment
The broadcast accurately captures polling shortfalls in Wisconsin where Hong led by double digits or more yet lost, and Michigan where El-Sayed's margin was smaller than pre-election surveys indicated. Florida primary context on the redrawn district and local dynamics is sound. Viewer perception may be skewed by emphasis on DSA's anti-Israel angle without counter-evidence on voter priorities like affordability; Swalwell segment relies on recent declassified files but frames the 2020 interview as a flat denial without full original context. Sourcing is mostly on-air analysis with limited named polls; no major factual errors but selective framing on progressive candidates.
Key Moments
Wisconsin poll had Francesca Hong up 20 points but she lost
Multiple pre-primary polls including Marquette showed Hong leading by double digits; she lost narrowly per election results and Forbes analysis.
Michigan polls showed El-Sayed way ahead but outcome closer
Emerson, Tavern Research and others had double-digit leads; final primary margin was narrow per AP and NBC results.
Same poll company involved in both Wisconsin and Michigan experiments
Transcript references unnamed firm; no public confirmation of identical company across races in available reporting.
New FBI files detail Swalwell-Fang relationship contradicting 2020 denial
August 2026 declassified files confirm relationship details and investigation; Swalwell cut ties post-briefing per Axios and recent reports.
Notable Concerns
- Reliance on unnamed poll company for 'social experiment' claim without specific sourcing
Sources Consulted
- Abdul El-Sayed wins MI Democratic Senate primary
- Why Polls Got Wisconsin Governor's Race Wrong—After Socialist Francesca Hong Loses
- Oliver Larkin, a 34-year-old DSA candidate, is running for Congress in Florida
- Declassified FBI Files Reveal Congressman Swalwell Was Investigated
- El-Sayed pulls off narrow victory over Democratic establishment