Gas hits $4.49 amid Iran conflict as Trump cancels $810M in migrant funds
Source: MS NOW · All MS NOW reports
Why this grade: Graded C-: Most numerical claims on gas ($4.49, September record $4.30 vs. $3.83 in 2023), diesel surge, mortgage rates crossing 7%, Costco $184M refunds, $810M pocket rescission, and the young-men poll are verified by AAA, Freddie Mac, earnings calls, White House announcements, and Cygnal polling. However, causal claims attributing the entire price run-up and economic pain solely to 'Trump's war on Iran' and 'tariff taxes' omit global crude markets, OPEC decisions, and pre-existing inflation trends; inflation was already trending toward the Fed's 2% target in early 2025 before the February strikes.
Why this lean: The segment features only Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle, frames every price increase as the direct result of 'Trump's failed moronic policies' and 'Trump's war,' repeatedly calls tariffs a 'tax' that raises consumer costs while highlighting Costco's refunds as proof, and contrasts voter frustration with Trump's claims without Republican counterpoints or broader economic context.
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Summary
The MS NOW segment reported record-high September gas prices at $4.49 per gallon nationally and diesel at $6.50, linking both to volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S.-Iran military conflict that began with strikes on Feb. 28, 2026. It highlighted rising 30-year mortgage rates above 7%, an AP anecdote of a young Texas driver struggling with trade-offs between groceries and fuel, Costco using $184 million in tariff refunds to cut prices on everyday goods, a new poll showing young men (18-30) shifting from 2024 Trump support toward Democrats over cost-of-living issues, and Trump's announcement canceling $810 million in congressionally approved spending on migrant and trafficking-victim programs via a rare pocket rescission. Guest Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA), top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, blamed Trump's tariffs (called the highest since the 1930s) and the Iran conflict for preventing inflation from reaching the Fed's 2% target and causing the price spikes, criticized Republican lawmakers for not supporting a war-powers resolution, and warned the rescission undermines Congress's power of the purse.
Editorial Assessment
The broadcast accurately reports current price levels and recent policy actions but heavily attributes causality to Trump administration decisions without noting that crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and Hormuz disruptions stem from a complex, multi-party conflict involving Iran, Israel, and U.S. responses that began with strikes on Iranian targets. Viewers miss context that gas prices were already rising in late 2025, that presidents have limited direct control over global oil markets, and that tariffs can have mixed effects (Costco's refunds show some clawback occurred after a Supreme Court ruling). The one-sided guest selection and loaded language ('failing economy,' 'moronic policies') skew perception toward viewing all current pain as uniquely Trump-driven. The young-men poll is real but reflects midterm dynamics rather than settled 2026 trends. Overall, facts are mostly sourced yet framed to maximize political contrast ahead of midterms.
Key Moments
September on pace to shatter gas price record; national average $4.49, 40% higher than before Trump's war on Iran, highest for this time of year
AAA data confirms $4.49 national average as of late September 2026, highest September on record with monthly average ~$4.30 vs. prior $3.83 in 2023; prices rose sharply after Feb. 28 strikes.
Diesel up more than 73% since Trump's war in Iran began, from $3.75 on Feb. 28 to $6.50 today
EIA and AAA figures show diesel near $3.72 in February 2026 and record $6.53 in September 2026; percentage roughly aligns with reported surge tied to Hormuz disruptions.
30-year fixed mortgage rate recently crossed 7%, highest since January 2025
Freddie Mac weekly survey shows 7.03% as of Sept. 24, 2026, up from lower levels earlier in the year and matching early-2025 peaks.
Costco using $184M in Trump tariff refunds to lower prices rather than let tariffs inflate costs
Costco CFO confirmed $184M ($174M refunds + $10M interest) in Q4 earnings call, stating majority reinvested in price reductions on produce, meat, and non-food items after Supreme Court struck certain tariffs.
Trump canceling $810M in congress-approved funding for undocumented migrant programs via pocket rescission, second time in 49 years
White House announced the action targeting HHS refugee/migrant services and DEI-related grants; critics including Sen. Collins and Rep. Boyle call it illegal impoundment.
New poll shows 52% of men 18-30 would vote Democrat for House vs. 43% Republican, shift from 2024 Trump support due to cost-of-living concerns
Cygnal poll (Sept. 15-18, 2026) of young male voters found Democratic generic-ballot lead of 52-43% among likely voters, with cost of living cited as top issue; contrasts 2024 exit polls.
Notable Concerns
- Strong partisan framing with no Republican perspective or expert on energy markets
- Over-attribution of global oil price spikes solely to U.S. policy without noting Iran's role in closing Hormuz or multi-nation involvement
- Equating tariff policy directly with consumer prices while highlighting only the refund that offsets them
Sources Consulted
- AAA Fuel Prices - National Average Climbs Nearly 5 Cents
- US Gas Gauge - Gas Prices Under Donald Trump (second term)
- Freddie Mac - 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average
- Fox Business - Costco receives $184M in tariff refunds
- Washington Examiner - Trump takes aim at DEI and noncitizen programs in $1 billion pocket rescission
- Politico - Young men are swinging away hard from Republicans
- EIA via FRED - US Regular All Formulations Gas Price